Which NFL teams are the biggest locks to produce the Week 6 victory and keep your survivor pool alive?
There have been a flurry of upsets to start the 2024 NFL season, making the Survivor Pool waters even more difficult to navigate than most years.
The biggest outright favorite has lost in each of the first five weeks. This also comes in a season in which the average NFL point spread has been just 4.09 on the season. This marks the slimmest margin ever recorded in the Super Bowl era. Only one matchup this season has had a double-digit spread, which also marks the fewest in the Super Bowl era. There have been nine matchups with spreads of 7.5 or greater this season. Underdogs are 8-1 against the spread and 7-2 straight up in these games.
If you have managed to remain in your survivor pool competitions so far, you deserve a massive tip of the cap. Here is a breakdown of the Week 6 slate and which games have the best chance of allowing you to survive and advance.
1. Houston Texans over New England Patriots (-7 Spread and -325 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Houston Texans are off to a 4-1 start to the season but have yet to reach their peak as a team. Through the opening five weeks, they rank sixth in yards tallied on offense but 19th in points scored. Defensively, they rank 17th in points allowed and 27th in turnovers forced. Houston will be facing a New England Patriots team that is 1-4 on the season ranking 31st in both points scored and yards tallied.
The most notable change heading into this matchup is the Patriots’ decision to start rookie QB Drake Maye. The third overall pick in this year’s draft has sat behind Jacoby Brissett through the first five weeks as a part of New England’s development plan for him. While there may be some sort of spark provided by the quarterback change, the issues with the Patriots are deeper than just the quarterback position. The offensive line has struggled greatly, allowing Brissett to be sacked 17 times so far this season, which ranks third in the NFL. The Patriots have also been unable to assert themselves on the defensive side of the ball with any consistency.
Ultimately, expect this to be a matchup where Maye gets his first taste of the NFL level but provides little chance of winning the game. New England’s defense is not talented enough to stifle C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense. Houston has done enough to win four of the five games without playing its best football. Expect the team to inch closer to that and for the Texans to come out victorious against the Patriots without much trouble.
2. Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers (-6 Spread and -258 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a slow start to the season for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, Atlanta looks to be getting back on the right track. It is coming off back-to-back games scoring 26 or more points and produced an impressive 550 yards of offense last week. The Falcons hold a 3-2 overall record and have a great chance to pick up their fourth win against the Panthers.
Carolina made a surprising decision to bench last year’s first overall pick Bryce Young just two weeks into the season. Andy Dalton provided a nice jolt of life to the Panthers in Weeks 3 and 4, including picking up a victory against the Raiders, but he seems to have come back to earth. Last week they were blown out by the Bears 36-10 after Dalton threw for just 136 yards and an interception. The Bears outgained the Panthers 424-292 and Carolina is back to facing the reality that it is just not a good football team.
This provides a great chance for the Falcons to continue building momentum. The Panthers have allowed the most points of any defense in the NFL and are also 28th in yards allowed. They have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns of any team in the NFL and provide a great chance for Cousins to pick them apart. Expect this to be the case and for Atlanta to have no problem cruising to its third consecutive victory.
3. Philadelphia Eagles over Cleveland Browns (-9 Spread and -470 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week after a relatively frustrating first four weeks. They enter with a 2-2 record with some flaws becoming clear in the team’s play. While you can make an argument that the Eagles should not be 9-point favorites over anyone so far, the Browns offer about as good of a “get-right” spot as they could ask for.
Cleveland enters with a 1-4 record and the reality of Deshaun Watson’s struggles are being put on full display. As a team, the Browns rank 30th in points and 32nd in yards tallied. They also rank dead last in net yards per pass attempt, 29th in first downs and last in score percentage. Cleveland’s defense has also not brought its usual bite, ranking 23rd in points allowed and giving up 33 or more points to opponents twice already this year.
There are still questions surrounding this Eagles team. But coming off the bye week with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith set to return, expect things to look different. The list of teams the Browns have a chance against on a week-by-week basis continues to shrink and the Eagles are not a team that should be on it. Watson has been sacked 26 times already this season, which is eight more than any other quarterback. Expect Philadelphia to turn up the heat defensively and for it to be in the driver’s seat throughout this matchup.
4. Chicago Bears over Jacksonville Jaguars (-2 Spread and -135 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a disappointing start to the Caleb Williams era in Chicago, the Bears look to have found their stride. They are coming off back-to-back victories in which they have produced 60 combined points. They also have shined defensively this season. Chicago has held opponents to the fifth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards so far this season. The Bears have also forced the third-most turnovers and allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns this season.
Chicago will face off with another former No. 1 overall pick at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Things have not gone well for either Lawrence or the Jaguars to start the season. They enter this matchup with a 1-4 record and concerns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they rank 21st in scoring and 15th in yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville ranks 30th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed and 31st in turnovers forced. Lawrence himself has shown signs of regression as he is currently tied with his rookie year with a 59.6% completion rate and has tallied six touchdowns and two interceptions while fumbling the ball nine times already. There are also plenty of concerns within the coaching and playcalling beyond Lawrence’s play.
This matchup is set to take place in England, where the Jaguars are more familiar with playing than any other team. However, that does not make up for the talent gap and the Bears being deeper in just about every notable positional category. Don’t expect Jacksonville to roll over, but Chicago has found something in its recent stretch of play and will look to build off of it. Chicago is shaping into the dark horse contender it was expected to be and this will continue in Week 6 against the Jaguars.
Games to Avoid:
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+185 ML)
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off an outright victory over the 49ers, which they entered as 7-point underdogs. However, they still have not earned the respect of the books. The Cardinals enter this matchup with a 2-3 record and will face off with the 3-2 Packers. While there is plenty of room for optimism surrounding the Packers from a season-long standpoint, this is not a spot where I particularly like them. The Cardinals are an unpredictable team that can score at high rates in any given matchup. Both of these teams’ success is driven by their offense and each has concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been mostly sharp this year and has a chance to play spoiler in this matchup. Give the Cardinals a fair chance of getting back to .500 and stay away from this game in survivor pools.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans (-108 ML)
No player in the NFL has as wide of a range of level of play as Anthony Richardson. The Colts starting quarterback looks like a special talent who can make advanced throws at times and also like a quarterback who cannot read the field at all in others. It is even more frustrating that these examples can happen within the same drive. One player that is in this same type of conversation is Will Levis. The Titans starter has had similar decision-making issues and is also battling a shoulder injury, which has kept him limited at practice. If he is unable to play the Titans will turn the ball over to Mason Rudolph, who also doesn’t quite strike fear into the hearts of opponents. If you are feeling bold and want to side with the Colts I can see the argument, but the high variance in Richardson’s play has Indianapolis as a weekly auto-avoid in my eyes.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos (+130 ML)
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off their bye week and will start things off with a divisional matchup against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers hold a 2-2 record this season while the Broncos have quietly started the year 3-2. Denver has had success defensively this season and currently ranks second in points allowed and third in yards given up. Los Angeles has had similar success and is allowing the fewest points per game while ranking fifth in yards allowed. Expect both offenses to struggle and for this to be a low-scoring matchup. Whichever quarterback can lead their team to success first will have the inside track on the victory, but Bo Nix has quietly shown some notable improvement across the past few weeks. This line feels like it should be closer to a Pick ‘Em and one that is best to avoid for your Week 6 survivor pool choice.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.